Dortmund – Bayern showdown

Well, unless you’ve been hiding under a rock or following the EPL, you’re probably full of expectation for this Wednesday’s clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München. This will likely decide the Bundesliga title.

The current standings:

 1  Borussia Dortmund (M)	29    20    6 	 3    66:22  +44    66
 2  Bayern München	  	29    20    3 	 6    69:19  +50    63

If Dortmund win, it’s basically all over. But if Bayern win, it’s likely all over as well. Bayern has the better goal difference, which is basically worth a point. And if you look at the remaining schedule after this match, it clearly favors Bayern:

Borussia Dortmund               Bayern München 

Schalke 04 (A) 	                FSV Mainz 05 (H)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) 	Werder Bremen (A)
1. FC Kaiserslautern (A) 	VfB Stuttgart (H)
SC Freiburg (H) 	        1. FC Köln (A)

Dortmund has two tough matches, at Schalke and home to Gladbach. They could easily drop points there. They should stuff Kaiserslautern, who will probably be demoralized and relegated. They wrap up with a likely win against Freiburg, although SCF has been playing quite well recently and may need a result to stay up. So if you figure D-D-W-W, that’s about 8 points.

For Bayern, easy win against Mainz, probably a win at Bremen, who suck, although perhaps they’ll ride emotion to give Bayern a tough time. Stuttgart is hot right now, so that could be a problem, but I’d expect a win. Finally, they probably easily kick Köln’s ass on the final day. So you’re likely to get something like W-D-W-W, 10 points.

If the match ends in a draw, the title is still a toss-up. If the above prediction holds true, Dortmund hold the title. But there is a strong possibility that Bayern sweeps all four, so 12 points. Which means Dortmund will have to beat either Schalke or Gladbach and not lose to retain the championship.

Needless to say, Bayern has a historical advantage (38 W, 26 T, 21 L), but Dortmund has often sucked, especially in the old days. A more important stat is that Dortmund has won the last three matches, the last in München on a goal by Mario Götze. (The injured midfield stars, Dortmund’s Götze and Bayern’s Bastian Schweinsteiger, will probably be ready to go, so expect full strength lineups)

For Bayern, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery have been on a rampage, so I’d expect some problems for the Dortmund defense. But Dortmund’s team concept has worked pretty well, sp they should have plenty of play. Bayern’s GK Manuel Neuer is world-class, but can almost always to have some brain-fart to give the opponent an opportunity. Dortmund probably wastes more chances than anybody.

So who wins? It’s anybody’s game. But I suppose if I had to choose, I’d want Dortmund to win, since that’s good for German football…

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